96% — 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottest
Leader: 2nd hottest at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 2 contracts · $4K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-25 22:57:51 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market assesses whether May 2026 will rank as the second-hottest May on instrumental temperature records, reflecting expectations that recent warming trends continue but don't reach record extremes. The 90% probability for second-hottest reflects near-certainty that May 2026 will finish in the top tier of May temperatures historically, with only small probability of either record-breaking heat or a cooler-than-expected month. The outcome depends on whether La Niña or El Niño conditions persist, regional weather patterns over the coming weeks, and how much seasonal warming materializes. The resolution will occur when meteorological organizations release official May 2026 temperature data, typically in early June, comparing global mean temperatures against the satellite and instrumental record dating to 1979 or longer historical periods depending on the dataset used.

Key factors:
- Current global temperature anomalies and whether recent warming acceleration persists through May 2026
- Strength and persistence of ocean circulation patterns (ENSO phase) affecting tropical heat distribution
- Northern hemisphere late spring weather patterns, particularly high-latitude warming contributions to global averages
- Comparison baseline: May 2025 and recent May rankings to establish what constitutes first, second, or third-hottest
- Official temperature dataset release and reconciliation across major agencies (NASA GISS, NOAA, Copernicus, UAH) in early June 2026

Contracts:
- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 2nd hottest — 96¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 30%)
- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottest — 4¢ Polymarket $3K (weight 70%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T19:20:50.876Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/may-1st-2nd-3rd-hottest-record
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=2026%20May%201st%2C%202nd%2C%203rd%20hottest%20on%20record%3F%3A%203rd%20hottest
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev