55% — Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election
Leader: Alexi Giannoulias at 55% · Kalshi 55% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-24 22:50:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The current 46% probability represents the market's assessment of the leading candidate's likelihood of winning Chicago's mayoral election. This probability reflects a competitive race where the frontrunner holds a substantial but not dominant position. The level is driven by the candidate's current polling standing, name recognition, and fundraising relative to other contenders. Factors that could shift the probability include upcoming debates, campaign events, voter turnout patterns in key precincts, and how undecided voters break in the final weeks before the election. The single biggest catalyst will be Election Day results, but intermediate developments such as major endorsements, debate performances, or changes in voter enthusiasm could meaningfully move markets beforehand.

Key factors:
- The leading candidate's current polling position versus the runner-up (who is priced at 5%) suggests a competitive but not decisive advantage
- Kalshi contract volume and pricing across the 4 outcomes indicates active market participation and disaggregement among traders
- The 46% price reflects roughly 2-to-1 odds against, implying significant uncertainty about the ultimate winner despite the frontrunner's current lead
- Turnout and demographic shifts in Chicago precincts could materially affect the outcome given typical mayoral election volatility
- Campaign momentum and late-breaking endorsements or scandals have historically moved mayoral race probabilities meaningfully in the weeks before voting

Contracts:
- Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Alexi Giannoulias — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Brandon Johnson — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Maria Pappas — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Who will win Chicago Mayoral Election?: Joe Holberg — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-24T22:20:49.945Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "55% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mayorchi
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20Chicago%20Mayoral%20Election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev