69% — Big Walk Metacritic score
Kalshi 69% · 14 contracts · $633 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-29 22:00:30 UTC

Why this matters:
The 66% probability reflects market consensus that Big Walk will achieve a Metacritic score above 40 when it releases. Metacritic scores aggregate professional game reviews on a 0-100 scale and serve as a key quality benchmark in the gaming industry. The score will be determined upon release and influenced by the game's technical performance, gameplay mechanics, narrative quality, and how well it meets critic expectations relative to its genre. The main catalyst for resolving this prediction is the game's actual release date, at which point Metacritic will publish aggregated critic reviews. Downward pressure on the probability could come from negative pre-release coverage or critic previews, while upward movement could result from strong early reviews or positive media reception leading up to launch.

Key factors:
- The game's Metacritic score depends entirely on aggregated professional critic reviews at launch; no review embargo or early critic access data is currently public
- Similar games in the same genre or from the same developer provide baseline expectations for what Metacritic scores are achievable
- Big Walk's development status, announced feature set, and any public gameplay footage or previews influence critic sentiment before scoring
- The threshold of 40 represents a modest quality bar; most commercially released games score above this level, suggesting market confidence in basic competence
- Contract volume at $50 24-hour volume is relatively thin, indicating limited liquidity and potential wider bid-ask spreads that could reflect higher uncertainty

Contracts:
- Marvel Tokon: Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 85 — 59¢ Kalshi $222 (weight 35%)
- Halo: Campaign Evolved Metacritic score?: Above 80 — 71¢ Kalshi $210 (weight 33%)
- Marvel Tokon: Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 90 — 22¢ Kalshi $109 (weight 17%)
- Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 85 — 25¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 7%)
- Beast of Reincarnation Metacritic score?: Above 70 — 95¢ Kalshi $25 (weight 4%)
- Big Walk Metacritic score?: Above 90 — 9¢ Kalshi $11 (weight 2%)
- Big Walk Metacritic score?: Above 80 — 65¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 1%)
- Marvel Tokon: Fighting Souls Metacritic score?: Above 70 — 96¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- ... and 6 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-29T21:20:50.110Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "69% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Big%20Walk%20Metacritic%20score
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev