88% — Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 46100 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026
Leader: Above 45800 at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 15 contracts · $301 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 13:13:51 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 15 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether McDonald's will operate more than 46,100 restaurants globally in its Q2 2026 earnings report, due in late July 2026. The 88% probability reflects strong confidence in continued systemwide expansion. McDonald's has historically grown its restaurant count year-over-year, though the pace varies with economic conditions, franchise development activity, and company strategy. The main uncertainty centers on whether closures in specific markets might offset new openings. Resolution depends entirely on the official Q2 2026 restaurant count disclosed in McDonald's earnings announcement, expected in late July. Market pricing also suggests confidence in moderate comparable sales growth, which typically correlates with expansion willingness.

Key factors:
- McDonald's reported approximately 41,215 systemwide restaurants as of Q1 2026; achieving 46,100+ requires ~4,900 net new openings in one quarter, or the question may reference a different baseline or measurement date
- Franchise development velocity and approval rates in key markets (US, China, India, Europe) directly determine new unit additions; slowdowns in any major region would pressure the outcome downward
- Net restaurant closures from market exits, underperformance, or economic pressure in mature markets (e.g., Russia, UK) offset gross openings and represent the primary downside risk
- The Q2 2026 earnings release date and the exact restaurant count methodology McDonald's uses in its official disclosure will mechanically determine the outcome; no discretion or interpretation applies

Contracts:
- Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 45800 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 45800 — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report above 0 global comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 0% — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report above 0.5 global comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 0.5% — 80¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 45900 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 45900 — 75¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report above 1 global comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 1% — 71¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 1.5% global comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 1.5% — 57¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 1%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 46000 total systemwide restaurants in Q2 2026?: Above 46000 — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will McDonald's Corporation report Above 2% global comparable sales growth in Q2 2026?: Above 2% — 46¢ Kalshi $80 (weight 26%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T12:20:49.546Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mcd
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20McDonald's%20Corporation%20report%20Above%2046100%20total%20systemwide%20restaurants%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev