89% — Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026
Leader: No one at 89% · Kalshi 89% · 2 contracts · $201 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-08-03 21:10:02 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Market participants currently assess a 71% probability that Michigan state Senator Mallory McMorrow will not endorse any candidate in the 2026 U.S. Senate race before August 4, 2026, with smaller probabilities assigned to endorsements of Abdul El-Sayed (11%) or Haley Stevens (16%). This reflects uncertainty about McMorrow's political positioning and timing in what appears to be a competitive Democratic primary. The outcome hinges on McMorrow's strategic calculation regarding whether an early endorsement aids her political influence or constrains her options. The August 4 deadline is imminent, making this a near-term resolution event. Primary election dynamics, intra-party relationships, and McMorrow's public statements over the next week will largely determine the outcome, with any formal endorsement announcement immediately resolving the question.

Key factors:
- McMorrow has not publicly committed to endorsing any candidate as of July 28, 2026, with only 7 days until the resolution deadline
- The market assigns 11% to El-Sayed and 16% to Stevens, suggesting uncertainty about which candidate—if any—McMorrow might support
- High 24-hour trading volume ($989-$1,010 on top contracts) indicates active disagreement among participants about the likelihood of an endorsement
- Early August timing may coincide with Michigan Democratic Party activities, candidate events, or debate schedules that could trigger public endorsement announcements
- McMorrow's prior political positioning and public relationships with El-Sayed and Stevens would influence which candidate she might endorse if she chooses to do so

Contracts:
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse No one in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026?: No one — 89¢ Kalshi $171 (weight 85%)
- Will Mallory McMorrow endorse Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 Michigan Senate race before Aug 4, 2026?: Abdul El-Sayed — 7¢ Kalshi $30 (weight 15%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-02T19:20:51.635Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "89% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mcmorrowendorse
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mallory%20McMorrow%20endorse%20Abdul%20El-Sayed%20in%20the%202026%20Michigan%20Senate%20race%20before%20Aug%204%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev