66% — MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Adrian Boafo at 66% · Polymarket 66% · 3 contracts · $24 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-29 23:53:35 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market currently assigns Adrian Boafo a 54% probability of winning the MD-05 Democratic primary, while runner-up Harry Dunn sits at 21% and other candidates trail substantially. The significant gap between the leader and challengers reflects market participants' assessment that Boafo holds a structural advantage, though the race remains competitive given that Dunn and theoretical consolidation among other candidates represent a material threat. Trading volume concentrates heavily on the Boafo contract, suggesting active re-evaluation as new information emerges. Primary outcomes typically hinge on organizational strength, donor support, endorsements, and turnout patterns in the district. The resolution of this contract depends on the Maryland primary election date and official results certification.

Key factors:
- Boafo maintains a 33-point margin over the second-place finisher in current pricing
- Harry Dunn contract trades at 21 cents, indicating meaningful probability for a single alternative candidate
- Combined probability of all non-Boafo candidates exceeds 46%, creating potential coalition scenarios
- Minimal recent 24-hour trading volume outside Boafo ($21 vs. $0 on alternatives) suggests limited price discovery on challengers
- Primary outcome determined by official election results and margin thresholds defining winner-take-all contract resolution

Contracts:
- MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Adrian Boafo — 66¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Harry Dunn — 16¢ Polymarket $14 (weight 59%)
- MD-05 Democratic Primary Winner: Wala Blegay — 3¢ Polymarket $10 (weight 41%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-29T23:20:08.374Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "66% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/md05-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MD-05%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev