81% — Will Rushern Baker III be the Democratic nominee for MD-05
Kalshi 81% · 1 contracts · $26 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:33 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the chance that Rushern Baker III becomes the Democratic nominee for Maryland's 5th Congressional District. At 26%, the market suggests he is neither the frontrunner nor an unlikely candidate. The probability reflects uncertainty about the district's competitive dynamics, candidate field composition, and voter preferences in what appears to be an open seat or contested primary. Key drivers include whether other strong candidates enter the race, Baker's fundraising performance relative to rivals, and his name recognition and endorsement levels. The primary election date would be the critical juncture resolving this uncertainty, as it would determine whether Baker advances through the nomination process.

Key factors:
- The size and strength of the overall candidate field—whether Baker faces one main competitor or a crowded primary field
- Baker's fundraising totals and cash-on-hand position relative to other potential Democratic nominees
- Primary election timing and the date voters will actually cast ballots for the Democratic nomination
- Local endorsements from party officials, labor unions, and community organizations backing specific candidates
- Historical primary turnout patterns and voter demographics in MD-05 that may advantage or disadvantage particular candidate profiles

Contracts:
- Will Dan Schwartz be the Democratic nominee for MD-01?: Dan Schwartz — 81¢ Kalshi $26 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:51.091Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "81% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mdprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Rushern%20Baker%20III%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20MD-05
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev