96% — ME-02 Republican Primary Winner
Leader: Paul LePage at 96% · Polymarket 96% · 2 contracts · $220 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-11 13:13:38 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 93% probability indicates that prediction-market participants view one particular candidate as heavily favored to win the ME-02 Republican primary. The high concentration reflects either a dominant frontrunner in polling and endorsements, or a field where one candidate has substantially outpaced competitors in fundraising and organizational capacity. Movement in this probability would likely follow shifts in public polling, major endorsements, or campaign developments. The primary election itself represents the key resolution event—voters' actual choices will determine the outcome. Contract volume and price consistency across markets suggest moderate but not exceptional interest in this specific race.

Key factors:
- The leading candidate maintains a 89-percentage-point spread over the runner-up (93% vs 4%), indicating markets perceive a substantial structural advantage rather than a close contest
- Similar Maine GOP primary races show varying market certainty levels, suggesting factors specific to ME-02 (candidate profile, district composition, opponent quality) are driving the high probability rather than a systematic pattern
- The 24-hour contract volume of approximately $23,457 on related races provides moderate liquidity but is lower than high-profile national races, indicating specialized rather than mainstream market participation
- Resolution depends entirely on the official primary election result, with no intermediate milestones or polling releases that would necessarily shift probabilities before ballots are cast
- The current 93% pricing implies roughly 7-in-100 odds of the runner-up or other candidate winning, a scenario that would require significant unexpected developments

Contracts:
- ME-02 Republican Primary Winner: Paul LePage — 96¢ Polymarket $220 (weight 100%)
- ME-02 Republican Primary Winner: James Clark — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-11T01:20:12.452Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "96% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/me02-republican-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=ME-02%20Republican%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev