29% — Will Joe Baldacci be the Democratic nominee for ME-02
Kalshi 29% · 1 contracts · $46 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-21 10:47:01 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the market's assessment that Joe Baldacci will win the Democratic primary for Maine's 2nd congressional district. At 31%, the market is assigning roughly one-in-three odds to Baldacci becoming the Democratic nominee. The current level likely reflects uncertainty around candidate field composition and Baldacci's positioning within a potentially competitive primary. Factors that could shift this probability include the formal entry or withdrawal of other candidates, polling data showing changes in voter preference, and fundraising indicators revealing the relative strength of different campaigns. The primary election itself would ultimately resolve this market, though the specific date depends on Maine's election calendar and any special circumstances affecting the race. Primary performance and early election results would provide the most significant catalyst for reassessing the probability.

Key factors:
- Field composition: the emergence or non-emergence of credible alternative Democratic candidates would directly affect Baldacci's nomination odds
- Polling trends: direct measurement of voter preference among likely Democratic primary voters in ME-02
- Campaign fundraising and resources: relative financial capacity to build organization and reach voters
- Turnout patterns: Democratic primary participation rates can significantly shift outcomes in lower-salience elections
- Election results from comparable recent Maine races: historical patterns in district-level primary competition and nominee selection

Contracts:
- Will Matthew Dunlap be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?: Matthew Dunlap — 29¢ Kalshi $46 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-20T13:20:20.457Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "29% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/me02d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Joe%20Baldacci%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20ME-02
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev