93% — Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1051.5 feet in May 2026 Leader: Above 1041 Ft at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 13 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:03 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 13 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects the likelihood that Lake Mead's water elevation will exceed 1051.5 feet by May 31, 2026. The current 6% implied probability suggests this threshold is seen as unlikely given historical patterns and recent inflow conditions. Lake Mead's elevation depends primarily on Colorado River water releases, snowmelt timing in the Rocky Mountains, and regional precipitation. The steep probability gradient across the contract range (96% for 1048.5 feet down to 6% for 1051.5 feet) indicates traders view even modest elevation gains above 1049 feet as increasingly unlikely. Resolution occurs on May 31, 2026, when the Bureau of Reclamation publishes the official end-of-month elevation reading. Between now and then, weekly elevation data and upstream dam release decisions will provide incremental information about whether inflows remain sufficient to push the lake higher. Key factors: - Current Lake Mead elevation as of mid-May 2026 and trend direction over the previous 7-10 days - Projected Colorado River unregulated inflow forecasts through May 31, including snowmelt runoff from upper basin states - Release schedules from Glen Canyon Dam and other upstream facilities, which directly control water entering Lake Mead - Historical comparison: Lake Mead elevation patterns in May across prior years and current water-year precipitation totals versus normal - Weekly Bureau of Reclamation elevation bulletins and any official updates to monthly or annual water-sharing allocation assumptions Contracts: - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1041 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1041 Ft — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1041.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1041.5 Ft — 92¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1050 feet in May 2026?: Above 1050 Ft — 91¢ Kalshi $955 (weight 91%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1042 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1042 Ft — 91¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1042.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1042.5 Ft — 89¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1043 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1043 Ft — 83¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1043.5 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1043.5 Ft — 77¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 1%) - Will Lake Mead's end-of-month water elevation be above 1044 feet in Jun 2026?: Above 1044 Ft — 65¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 5 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:09.363Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mead Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Lake%20Mead's%20end-of-month%20water%20elevation%20be%20above%201051.5%20feet%20in%20May%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev