85% — Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026
Leader: Above 3000 at 85% · Kalshi 85% · 5 contracts · $238 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-29 02:44:24 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This market asks whether the United States will record more than 6,000 measles cases during 2026, with traders currently pricing a 31% probability. Measles case counts depend primarily on vaccination coverage rates and the emergence of new outbreaks in under-immunized populations. The resolution will be determined by confirmed case counts reported by the CDC, which publishes weekly surveillance data throughout the year. Key drivers include whether current vaccination momentum continues, whether new clusters emerge in specific communities, and international travel patterns that could introduce the virus. By mid-year, trend data from CDC reports will provide clarity on whether the U.S. is tracking toward this threshold or remaining well below it.

Key factors:
- U.S. measles vaccination coverage rates for MMR, particularly among school-age children and new birth cohorts
- Number and size of measles outbreaks in communities with below-average immunization rates, tracked via CDC surveillance reports
- CDC weekly case counts through June 2026, which would establish whether the pace is on track to reach 6,000 by year-end
- International travel-associated introductions and secondary transmission chains, especially given global measles activity
- State and local public health response effectiveness, including vaccination campaign intensity and outbreak containment measures

Contracts:
- Will there be more than 3000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 3000 — 85¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 4000 — 31¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 6000 — 12¢ Kalshi $102 (weight 43%)
- Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 8000 — 10¢ Kalshi $136 (weight 57%)
- Will there be more than 10000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 10000 — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-29T02:20:51.093Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "85% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/measles
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20there%20be%20more%20than%206000%20measles%20cases%20in%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev