25% — Measles cases in U.S. by April 30?: 1800
Polymarket 22% · Kalshi 39% · 19 contracts · $7K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-05-03 16:57:56 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 17pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will there be more than 4000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 4000 — 31¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 11%)
- Will there be more than 6000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 6000 — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 10%)
- Will Gasoline (All Types) in U.S. City Average for April 2026 be above 365ㅤ?: Above 365ㅤ — 4¢ Kalshi $777 (weight 9%)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑3k — 59¢ Polymarket $372 (weight 8%)
- Will there be more than 8000 measles cases in 2026?: Above 8000 — 11¢ Kalshi $264 (weight 8%)
- What will the average number of measles cases be during the Trump Administration?: At least 5000 — 31¢ Kalshi $235 (weight 7%)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑10k — 10¢ Polymarket $144 (weight 7%)
- Measles cases in U.S. in 2026?: ↑4k — 30¢ Polymarket $116 (weight 6%)
- ... and 11 more

Cite as: "25% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/measles-cases-us-april-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Measles%20cases%20in%20U.S.%20by%20April%2030%3F%3A%201800
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev