13% — Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027 Kalshi 13% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-09-25 09:35:44 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the chance Sam Altman appears as a guest on The Ben Shapiro Political Network before the end of 2026. At 30%, traders are pricing this as unlikely but plausible within the next five months. The probability is influenced by two main dynamics: Altman's media visibility and public engagement schedule, which has varied historically, and TBPN's guest selection patterns for technology and business leaders. Compared to similar tech executives in the related contracts, Altman's probability sits between mid-tier figures like Zuckerberg (32%) and lower estimates for Amodei (8%), suggesting traders view him as moderately likely relative to his peer group. The primary uncertainty resolver will be any scheduled media commitments Altman announces or TBPN's confirmed guest roster through year-end. With approximately five months remaining, the short timeframe means this reflects current trajectory rather than longer-term likelihood. Key factors: - Altman's historical frequency of political media appearances and publicly scheduled interviews through December 2026 - TBPN's demonstrated pattern of tech industry guest selection and any announced guest lineups for Q4 2026 - Comparative betting on Zuckerberg (32%), Cuban (40%), and Andreessen (45%) suggests market calibration around executive media accessibility - No major catalyst date or announced event currently scheduled that would automatically trigger or prevent an appearance - Trading volume near zero across all related contracts indicates low conviction and potential for probability shifts based on minor news Contracts: - Will Jamie Dimon be on TBPN before 2027?: Jamie Dimon — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Mark Zuckerberg be on TBPN before 2027?: Mark Zuckerberg — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Marc Andreessen be on TBPN before 2027?: Marc Andreessen — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Mark Cuban be on TBPN before 2027?: Mark Cuban — 11¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) - Will Sam Altman be on TBPN before 2027?: Sam Altman — 41¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-25T09:20:51.015Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mediaguesttbpn Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Sam%20Altman%20be%20on%20TBPN%20before%202027 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev