78% — Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 5, 2026
Leader: Before Oct 1, 2026 at 78% · Kalshi 78% · 5 contracts · $10 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 03:47:26 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability represents traders' assessment that American Horror Story Season 13 will premiere in the USA before October 1, 2026—roughly four and a half months from now. The 85% confidence reflects the show's established fall premiere pattern and production timeline, though actual release dates depend on FX's scheduling decisions and any production delays. The contract pricing reveals skepticism about an early September premiere (19%), with most traders betting on a mid-to-late September window. The key uncertainty is whether the network will maintain its typical September slot or shift to October, which would occur if post-production extends beyond expectations or competing programming needs adjustment.

Key factors:
- American Horror Story has historically premiered in September, with Season 12 debuting September 22, 2023, establishing a precedent traders are pricing in
- The contract cascade shows a sharp jump from 19¢ (before Sep 5) to 85¢ (before Oct 1), indicating traders cluster expectations around late September rather than early fall
- FX's official announcement of a specific premiere date would immediately resolve uncertainty; as of May 2026, no public confirmation of Season 13's exact air date appears reflected in current market pricing
- Production completion status and post-production timeline for Season 13 directly determine whether the show can feasibly launch in September or faces delay into October
- Competing fall programming schedules and FX network priorities may influence whether Season 13 secures its traditional September slot or faces rescheduling

Contracts:
- Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 78¢ Kalshi $4 (weight 40%)
- Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 23, 2026?: Before Sep 23, 2026 — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 19, 2026?: Before Sep 19, 2026 — 35¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 12, 2026?: Before Sep 12, 2026 — 27¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 60%)
- Will American Horror Story Season 13 premiere be released in the USA before Sep 5, 2026?: Before Sep 5, 2026 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:50.328Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "78% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mediareleasedateahs
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20American%20Horror%20Story%20Season%2013%20premiere%20be%20released%20in%20the%20USA%20before%20Sep%205%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev