87% — Will the official trailer for Spider-Man
Leader: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 at 87% · Kalshi 87% · 4 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-27 01:52:27 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract measures whether Sony will release an official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse worldwide before August 1, 2026. The 93% probability reflects that the film is scheduled for theatrical release in late 2026, making a trailer release by early August highly probable as standard marketing practice. Major studios typically begin trailer campaigns 4-6 months before theatrical release. The primary downside risk involves production delays or unexpected release date changes; the main upside driver would be early promotional announcements. The critical resolution point approaches in early August 2026, when either the trailer appears or the deadline passes. Current low trading volume ($10 24h) suggests limited recent position changes, potentially indicating consensus among traders about the likelihood of standard marketing rollout.

Key factors:
- Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse has a confirmed late-2026 theatrical release window, creating baseline expectation for trailer release 4-6 months prior
- August 1, 2026 deadline is approximately 3 months away, providing ample typical lead time for major studio marketing campaigns
- No public production delays or release date revisions have been announced as of May 2026
- Runner-up contract at 88% suggests meaningful but minority probability that trailer delay extends past August 1
- Trading volume of $10 per 24 hours indicates sparse recent activity, with most price discovery likely completed earlier

Contracts:
- Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Apr 1, 2027?: Before Apr 1, 2027 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2027?: Before Dec 1, 2027 — 87¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)
- Will the official trailer for Spider-Man: Beyond the Spider-Verse be released Worldwide before Dec 1, 2026?: Before Dec 1, 2026 — 36¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 25%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-27T00:20:53.016Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "87% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mediareleasespiderman
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20official%20trailer%20for%20Spider-Man
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev