48% — Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026 Leader: Troy Jackson at 48% · Kalshi 48% · 4 contracts · $304K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-10 00:30:35 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability reflects market expectations that Nirav Shah will be formally confirmed as Maine's Democratic Senate nominee by July 31, 2026. Shah currently ranks second among Democratic candidates in prediction markets at 17%, trailing Troy Jackson at 57%. The probability is shaped by several dynamics: Jackson's current lead reflects his established political profile and recent polling performance, while Shah's position reflects his competitive viability as an alternative candidate. The Maine Democratic primary vote itself, scheduled for June 23, 2026, has already occurred as of this date, meaning the nominee may already be determined but formal confirmation could still be pending. Key factors affecting this probability include the primary vote results, any challenges or disputes to the nomination process, and the timeline for official party certification by the stated July 31 deadline. Key factors: - Maine's Democratic primary occurred on June 23, 2026; primary results would directly determine nominee viability - Troy Jackson currently leads prediction markets at 57% versus Shah's 17%, indicating market consensus favors Jackson among remaining candidates - Trading volume on Shah's contract ($6,905 in 24-hour volume) is lower than Jackson's ($10,602), suggesting less market certainty or engagement - The formal nomination confirmation process and its timeline relative to July 31, 2026 will determine if the condition is satisfied - Any primary results showing Shah outperforming market expectations or Jackson underperforming would shift probability substantially Contracts: - Will it be confirmed that Troy Jackson is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Troy Jackson — 48¢ Kalshi $120K (weight 40%) - Will it be confirmed that Shenna Bellows is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Shenna Bellows — 29¢ Kalshi $61K (weight 20%) - Will it be confirmed that Nirav Shah is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Nirav Shah — 11¢ Kalshi $64K (weight 21%) - Will it be confirmed that Dan Kleban is the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Maine on July 31, 2026?: Dan Kleban — 3¢ Kalshi $59K (weight 20%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-10T00:20:50.684Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "48% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mednomjul Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20it%20be%20confirmed%20that%20Nirav%20Shah%20is%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20U.S.%20Senate%20in%20Maine%20on%20July%2031%2C%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev