93% — Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 800 million items sold in Q2 2026
Leader: above 740 million at 93% · Kalshi 93% · 6 contracts · $6 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:53:49 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 740 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 740 million — 93¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 760 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 760 million — 84¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 780 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 780 million — 70¢ Kalshi $6 (weight 100%)
- Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 800 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 800 million — 45¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 820 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 820 million — 34¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will MercadoLibre Inc. report above 840 million items sold in Q2 2026?: above 840 million — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:08.445Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "93% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/meli
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MercadoLibre%20Inc.%20report%20above%20800%20million%20items%20sold%20in%20Q2%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev