10% — Will the Brazil win the 2026 Men's World Cup
Kalshi 10% · 8 contracts · $2.2M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 09:27:44 UTC

Why this matters:
Brazil is currently assigned a 10% probability of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, based on aggregated prediction market data. This reflects the team's historical strength but acknowledges competition from other established nations. Brazil's probability is primarily driven by squad composition and form heading into the tournament, along with the unpredictability inherent in knockout competitions. The 2026 World Cup takes place from June 12 to July 12, 2026, and will definitively resolve this market. Key factors markets appear to weigh include Brazil's current ranking in FIFA standings, performance in CONMEBOL World Cup qualifying, recent tournament results (Copa América outcomes), squad depth and injuries of key players, and historical win rates in knockout stages relative to peer nations.

Key factors:
- Brazil's FIFA ranking and performance trajectory in the 12 months preceding June 2026
- Results and form demonstrated in CONMEBOL qualifying rounds compared to other South American competitors
- Injury status and availability of core squad members during the tournament period
- Historical conversion rates for Brazil in World Cup knockout stages versus other nations with similar pre-tournament odds
- Tournament draw outcome and strength of opponents in Brazil's group stage and potential knockout path

Contracts:
- Will the Portugal win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Portugal — 10¢ Kalshi $460K (weight 21%)
- Will the Spain win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Spain — 16¢ Kalshi $365K (weight 17%)
- Will the Netherlands win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Netherlands — 4¢ Kalshi $337K (weight 16%)
- Will the France win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: France — 16¢ Kalshi $300K (weight 14%)
- Will the England win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: England — 10¢ Kalshi $281K (weight 13%)
- Will the Brazil win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Brazil — 8¢ Kalshi $226K (weight 10%)
- Will the Argentina win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Argentina — 9¢ Kalshi $136K (weight 6%)
- Will the Germany win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Germany — 6¢ Kalshi $62K (weight 3%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T09:20:09.221Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "10% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/menworldcup
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20Brazil%20win%20the%202026%20Men's%20World%20Cup
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev