21% — Will Messi play in the 2026 World Cup?
Kalshi 24% · Polymarket 19% · 16 contracts · $6.7M volume · high confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 07:51:13 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 5pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- World Cup Winner : Portugal — 10¢ Polymarket $993K (weight 15%)
- World Cup Winner : Netherlands — 4¢ Polymarket $940K (weight 14%)
- World Cup Winner : Brazil — 8¢ Polymarket $932K (weight 14%)
- World Cup Winner : Germany — 5¢ Polymarket $833K (weight 12%)
- World Cup Winner : France — 16¢ Polymarket $584K (weight 9%)
- World Cup Winner : England — 11¢ Polymarket $554K (weight 8%)
- Will the Portugal win the 2026 Men's World Cup?: Portugal — 10¢ Kalshi $504K (weight 7%)
- World Cup Winner : Spain — 16¢ Polymarket $437K (weight 6%)
- ... and 8 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T07:20:08.901Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/messi-world-cup-2026
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Messi%20play%20in%20the%202026%20World%20Cup%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev