94% — Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.68 billion family daily active people in 2026 Leader: Above 65000 at 94% · Kalshi 94% · 6 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-25 23:42:11 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability estimates whether Meta will report at least 3.68 billion family daily active people by end of 2026. The 90% confidence reflects Meta's historical growth trajectory and the relatively modest 0.5% increase required from their most recent reported levels. The metric matters because family daily active people (combining WhatsApp, Messenger, Instagram, and Facebook) is Meta's primary engagement metric used to assess platform health and advertiser reach. The main uncertainty driver is whether user growth will continue at historical rates or whether saturation in developed markets and macroeconomic headwinds could slow expansion. The resolution will occur when Meta files their 2026 full-year earnings report, likely in January 2027, when they disclose official DAP figures. Key factors: - Meta reported approximately 3.65 billion family DAP in Q4 2025, requiring only modest incremental growth to exceed the 3.68 billion threshold - The market prices above-3.66 billion at 89% while above-3.72 billion at only 57%, suggesting traders view moderate growth as highly likely but acceleration as less probable - Year-to-date 2026 user trends through Q2 will provide concrete evidence of whether growth is tracking toward or away from the threshold - Meta's execution on AI monetization and geographic expansion in emerging markets will influence whether growth maintains historical rates - Resolution depends entirely on Meta's official Q4 2026 earnings disclosure, with no interim data points definitively settling the contract Contracts: - Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 65000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 65000 — 94¢ Kalshi $751 (weight 14%) - Will Meta Platforms Inc. report Above 3.66 billion family daily active people in 2026?: Above 3.66 billion — 92¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 0%) - Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 68000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 68000 — 90¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 71000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 71000 — 69¢ Kalshi $768 (weight 14%) - Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 74000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 74000 — 42¢ Kalshi $48 (weight 1%) - Will Meta Platforms, Inc. report above 77000 Headcount in 2026?: Above 77000 — 12¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 71%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-25T23:20:49.813Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "94% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/metaa Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Meta%20Platforms%20Inc.%20report%20Above%203.68%20billion%20family%20daily%20active%20people%20in%202026 Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev