34% — Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026
Leader: James Talarico and Graham Platner at 34% · Kalshi 34% · 4 contracts · $250 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 00:38:32 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 4 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the market-implied probability that Republican Ken Paxton wins the Texas Senate seat and Democrat Susan Collins wins the Maine Senate seat in November 2026. The 35% price reflects that markets currently see a "Ken Paxton and Graham Platner" outcome (35%) as more likely than the Paxton-Collins combination (24%). The Texas race outcome and Maine race outcome are independent events, so their joint probability depends heavily on which candidates advance through primaries and how competitive each general election appears. Collins' political positioning in Maine and Paxton's standing in Texas polling will be key drivers. The main uncertainty resolves through the November 2026 general election; near-term movement will likely track primary results, campaign developments, and any polling updates through summer and fall 2026.

Key factors:
- Ken Paxton's approval and standing among Texas Republican primary voters and general election swing voters; his political trajectory since 2024
- Susan Collins' re-election viability in Maine relative to her Democratic challenger; her past electoral performance in the state
- The relative strength and funding of each candidate's campaign infrastructure heading into the general election
- Turnout and voter preference patterns in both Texas and Maine during the 2026 cycle, particularly among independents and moderates
- Primary calendar and candidate consolidation in each state; whether other candidates drop out and reallocate support before November 2026

Contracts:
- Will Texas Senate be James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Graham Platner wins for Nov 2026?: James Talarico and Graham Platner — 34¢ Kalshi $49 (weight 20%)
- Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?: Ken Paxton and Susan Collins — 29¢ Kalshi $32 (weight 13%)
- Will Texas Senate be Ken Paxton wins AND Maine Senate be Graham Platner wins for Nov 2026?: Ken Paxton and Graham Platner — 27¢ Kalshi $168 (weight 67%)
- Will Texas Senate be James Talarico wins AND Maine Senate be Susan Collins wins for Nov 2026?: James Talarico and Susan Collins — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T00:20:48.955Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "34% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/metxcombo
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Texas%20Senate%20be%20Ken%20Paxton%20wins%20AND%20Maine%20Senate%20be%20Susan%20Collins%20wins%20for%20Nov%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev