36% — Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before September 1, 2026
Leader: Before October 1, 2026 at 36% · Kalshi 36% · 3 contracts · $28 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 11:22:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This probability reflects market expectations that Mexico will resume oil shipments to Cuba within 67 days (by September 1, 2026). Mexico halted such exports due to U.S. sanctions pressure and diplomatic concerns. The 36% probability for October suggests traders see resumption as unlikely but plausible. The probability gradient across the four dates—3% for July, 13% for August, 21% for September, 36% for October—indicates low near-term momentum but gradual accumulation of probability over time. Key drivers include U.S.-Mexico bilateral relations, Mexican domestic political constraints, and Cuba's negotiating position. Any official Mexican government statement authorizing exports would be the primary resolution catalyst.

Key factors:
- Mexico's oil production capacity and export volumes relative to domestic demand and other international commitments
- Current U.S. administration policy toward Cuba sanctions enforcement and diplomatic pressure on Mexico
- Public statements or official actions by Mexican government officials regarding Cuba energy trade eligibility
- Market volume concentration: July contract shows $1449 in 24-hour volume while September shows $0, indicating thin liquidity and potentially unstable price discovery
- Timeline compression: only 67 days remain until the September 1 reference date, limiting time for diplomatic or policy shifts

Contracts:
- Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before October 1, 2026?: Before October 1, 2026 — 36¢ Kalshi $27 (weight 96%)
- Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before September 1, 2026?: Before September 1, 2026 — 21¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 4%)
- Will Mexico resume oil exports to Cuba before August 1, 2026?: Before August 1, 2026 — 13¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T11:20:49.751Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "36% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mexcuboil
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mexico%20resume%20oil%20exports%20to%20Cuba%20before%20September%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev