57% — Mexico GDP growth in Q1 2026?: <0.0%
Kalshi 88% · Polymarket 20% · 9 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 03:16:23 UTC

Cross-venue gap: 68pp (Kalshi higher)

Contracts:
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.6%?: Above 2.6% — 70¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.4%?: Above 2.4% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.2%?: Above 2.2% — 97¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Will Spain GDP growth rate YoY for Q1 2026 be above 2.0%?: Above 2.0% — 96¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 11%)
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: 6.0-7.0% — 29¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- 2026 World GDP Growth: 3.3% — 16¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Negative GDP growth in 2026? — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- Eurozone Annual GDP Growth 2026: <0% — 25¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 11%)
- ... and 1 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-08T02:20:10.903Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "57% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mexico-gdp-growth-q1
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Mexico%20GDP%20growth%20in%20Q1%202026%3F%3A%20%3C0.0%25
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev