49% — Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.5%+
Leader: -0.5-0.0% at 49% · Polymarket 49% · 8 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 06:33:31 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 8 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets are pricing Mexico's Q2 2026 GDP growth at roughly even odds of hitting 2.5% or higher, with the current frontrunner being minimal growth in the 0.0–0.5% range. This reflects significant uncertainty about Mexico's economic momentum heading into mid-year. The baseline forecast depends heavily on whether recent manufacturing and remittance flows sustain momentum, or whether tightening financial conditions and nearshoring volatility slow activity. Inflation pressures and central bank policy responses also shape expectations. The resolution hinges on Mexico's official Q2 GDP release, typically published in early August, which will provide the definitive annualized growth figure. Until then, incoming employment, industrial production, and credit data through June and July will offer signals about the underlying trajectory.

Key factors:
- Mexico's Q1 2026 GDP growth rate and recent quarterly trend will anchor expectations for Q2 momentum
- U.S. economic growth and manufacturing demand directly influence Mexican export-driven sectors and FDI flows
- Banco de México's interest rate decisions and inflation data through Q2 affect domestic consumption and investment spending
- Remittance inflows, which represent a material portion of household income, depend on U.S. labor market conditions
- Official Q2 GDP release (expected early August 2026) will definitively resolve the outcome; prior monthly PMI and industrial production data will provide interim signals

Contracts:
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: -0.5-0.0% — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.0-1.5% — 49¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: <-0.5% — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.5%+ — 47¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 2.0-2.5% — 42¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.0-0.5% — 40¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 1.5-2.0% — 39¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)
- Mexico GDP growth in Q2 2026?: 0.5-1.0% — 27¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 13%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "49% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mexico-gdp-growth-q2
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Mexico%20GDP%20growth%20in%20Q2%202026%3F%3A%202.5%25%2B
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev