91% — MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner
Leader: Jeremy Moss at 91% · Polymarket 91% · 5 contracts · $80 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 05:08:58 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The market is pricing an 81% probability for a specific outcome in Michigan's 11th Congressional District Democratic primary. This reflects trader expectations about which candidate will secure the Democratic nomination in this House race. The high probability suggests significant market confidence in the frontrunner based on current polling, fundraising data, and historical performance in similar contests. Factors driving this level include the candidate's polling lead, organizational strength, and perceived electability in the general election. The primary election itself will be the definitive catalyst resolving this uncertainty. Between now and the primary vote, shifts in polling, campaign developments, or unexpected endorsements could move the probability materially lower, while sustained polling leads or major fundraising announcements could reinforce the current forecast.

Key factors:
- Current polling margin between the frontrunner and nearest rival in MI-11 Democratic primary
- Relative fundraising totals and cash-on-hand as of the most recent FEC filing
- Endorsement patterns from established party figures and union organizations in the district
- Historical voter turnout and demographic composition in previous MI-11 Democratic primaries
- Timeline to the primary election date and any scheduled debates or candidate events

Contracts:
- MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Jeremy Moss — 91¢ Polymarket $80 (weight 100%)
- MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Don Ufford — 5¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Aisha Farooqi — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Dave Woodward — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MI-11 Democratic Primary Winner: Andy Levin — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "91% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mi11-democratic-primary-winner
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MI-11%20Democratic%20Primary%20Winner
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev