97% — Will Shri Thanedar be the Democratic nominee for MI-13
Kalshi 97% · 1 contracts · $1.2M volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 22:29:53 UTC

Why this matters:
This prediction estimates a 30% chance that Shri Thanedar wins the Democratic nomination for Michigan's 13th congressional district. The current probability reflects moderate competition in the race, likely shaped by factors such as Thanedar's existing political profile, the strength and fundraising capacity of other candidates in the primary, and local voter preferences in this Democratic-leaning district. The nomination will be resolved by the Michigan primary election, scheduled for August 2026, which will determine the actual winner through voter turnout and support across the district. Movements in this probability would likely respond to campaign developments including endorsements from local party figures, fundraising disclosures, polling data if available, candidate dropout announcements, or shifts in candidate visibility and ground operations in the district.

Key factors:
- Thanedar's vote share performance in the August 2026 Michigan Democratic primary election relative to competing candidates
- Campaign fundraising totals and spending rates for Thanedar compared to other nominees in the race through primary season
- Endorsements from Michigan Democratic establishment figures, labor organizations, or local elected officials
- Voter name recognition and favorability polling data for Thanedar versus primary opponents among MI-13 registered Democrats
- Whether competing candidates consolidate or remain fragmented heading into the August primary election

Contracts:
- Will Donavan McKinney be the Democratic nominee for MI-13?: Donavan McKinney — 97¢ Kalshi $1.2M (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-06T13:20:52.476Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mi13d
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Shri%20Thanedar%20be%20the%20Democratic%20nominee%20for%20MI-13
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev