7% — Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?
Polymarket 7% · 1 contracts · $57K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-23 23:38:44 UTC

Contracts:
- Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026? — 7¢ Polymarket $57K (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-23T06:41:53.876Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "7% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/microstrategy-sell-bitcoin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MicroStrategy%20sell%20any%20Bitcoin%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev