13% — Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?
Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $35K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:14 UTC

Contracts:
- Will Delcy Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 90¢ Kalshi $15K (weight 41%)
- Will María Corina Machado de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 5¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 13%)
- Will Nicolás Maduro de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 2¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Edmundo González Urrutia de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Jorge Rodríguez de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Diosdado Cabello de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 8%)
- Will Gustavo González López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 1¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)
- Will Vladimir Padrino López de facto hold head of state of Venezuela at the end of 2026? — 2¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 7%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-07T06:40:59.261Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/microstrategy-sell-bitcoin
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MicroStrategy%20sell%20any%20Bitcoin%3F
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev