13% — Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin? Kalshi 14% · Polymarket 8% · 7 contracts · $13.4M volume · high confidence Updated 2026-09-08 14:20:09 UTC Cross-venue gap: 6pp (Kalshi higher) Contracts: - Will Bitcoin be above $200000 by Jan 1, 2027 at 11:59PM ET? — 3¢ Kalshi $8.5M (weight 63%) - Will Bitcoin be below $55000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? — 26¢ Kalshi $1.5M (weight 11%) - Will Bitcoin be below $50000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? — 18¢ Kalshi $1.3M (weight 10%) - Will Bitcoin be below $40000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? — 10¢ Kalshi $1.2M (weight 9%) - Will Bitcoin be below $45000.00 by Jan 1, 2027 at 12:00am ET? — 14¢ Kalshi $814K (weight 6%) - Michael Saylor federally charged by December 31, 2026? — 8¢ Polymarket $75K (weight 1%) - Will a new main Fast & Furious film be officially announced in 2026? — 10¢ Kalshi $27K (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-09-08T06:41:23.815Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/microstrategy-sell-bitcoin Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20MicroStrategy%20sell%20any%20Bitcoin%3F Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev