79% — Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the U.S. Senate election in Mississippi be at least 23 percentage points Leader: Democrats, 8+ pts at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 20 contracts · $22K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-25 01:55:57 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This contract measures whether Republicans will win Mississippi's 2026 Senate seat by a margin of at least 23 percentage points. The 91% probability reflects Mississippi's strong Republican lean in recent elections and historical voting patterns. The outcome primarily depends on candidate quality, turnout dynamics, and whether any unexpected political shifts occur before Election Day in November 2026. The resolution will be determined by official vote tallies from the Mississippi Secretary of State once ballots are counted. The main uncertainty hinges on whether the Republican nominee can maintain party support and whether Democratic turnout and candidate strength prove stronger or weaker than baseline expectations. Key factors: - Mississippi voted for the Republican Senate candidate by 15 points in 2018 and 25 points in 2024, establishing a strong recent baseline for margin expectations - The identity and campaign strength of both the Republican and Democratic nominees will directly affect whether the final margin reaches the 23-point threshold - Voter turnout patterns, particularly among Democratic-leaning demographics, could shift the margin by several percentage points either direction - Any significant scandal, retirement, or replacement of the frontrunner candidate between now and November 2026 could materially alter market expectations - Official vote totals will be certified by the Mississippi Secretary of State, providing the definitive margin resolution in late 2026 Contracts: - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 22nd District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Democrats, 8+ pts — 79¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 1%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 8th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Republicans, 5+ pts — 73¢ Kalshi $207 (weight 1%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 22nd District House election be at least 11 percentage points?: Democrats, 11+ pts — 73¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 1%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the governor election in Arizona be at least 5 percentage points?: Democrats, 5+ pts — 71¢ Kalshi $241 (weight 1%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 6th District House election be at least 5 percentage points?: Republicans, 5+ pts — 68¢ Kalshi $207 (weight 1%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the Maryland's 6th District House election be at least 12 percentage points?: Democrats, 12+ pts — 64¢ Kalshi $607 (weight 3%) - Will the margin of victory for Democrats in the New York's 22nd District House election be at least 14 percentage points?: Democrats, 14+ pts — 62¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will the margin of victory for Republicans in the North Carolina's 8th District House election be at least 8 percentage points?: Republicans, 8+ pts — 55¢ Kalshi $205 (weight 1%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-25T01:20:48.805Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/midtermmov Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20margin%20of%20victory%20for%20Republicans%20in%20the%20U.S.%20Senate%20election%20in%20Mississippi%20be%20at%20least%2023%20percentage%20points Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev