86% — Will the total vote count for all participants in Wisconsin Governor General Election be above 3000000
Leader: Above 270K at 86% · Kalshi 86% · 20 contracts · $409 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-24 04:05:10 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This contract asks whether total votes cast in Wisconsin's 2026 gubernatorial race will exceed 3 million. The 81% probability reflects expectation that turnout will meet or exceed this threshold. Key factors include Wisconsin's historical gubernatorial turnout patterns—the 2022 gubernatorial election drew approximately 2.7 million votes—and whether 2026 generates comparable or higher participation. Midterm cycles typically see lower turnout than presidential years, but competitive races and voter mobilization efforts can offset this trend. The outcome resolves on official election results reported by Wisconsin election authorities following the November 2026 general election. Uncertainty primarily stems from whether specific campaign dynamics, candidate appeal, and voter enthusiasm will drive incremental increases above 2022 levels or result in decline from the baseline.

Key factors:
- Wisconsin's 2022 gubernatorial election recorded approximately 2.7 million total votes, establishing recent baseline turnout
- Midterm gubernatorial elections typically experience 10-20% lower turnout than presidential-year gubernatorial races in the same state
- The 3 million vote threshold represents roughly 8-12% growth over 2022 levels, requiring either population increases or significantly higher participation rates
- Competitive statewide races and coordinated turnout efforts can influence whether voters participate at presidential-year or midterm baseline levels
- Election results become official after Wisconsin election authorities certify the November 2026 general election results

Contracts:
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K — 86¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K — 68¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in California Governor General Election be above 12000000?: Above 12M — 60¢ Kalshi $15 (weight 4%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Maryland 05 House General Election be above 280000?: Above 280K — 60¢ Kalshi $5 (weight 1%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Senate General Election be above 260000?: Above 260K — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska Governor General Election be above 270000?: Above 270K — 55¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will the total vote count for all participants in Alaska at large House General Election be above 290000?: Above 290K — 50¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-24T03:20:49.591Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "86% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/midtermvoteturn
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20the%20total%20vote%20count%20for%20all%20participants%20in%20Wisconsin%20Governor%20General%20Election%20be%20above%203000000
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev