58% — Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...
Leader: December 31 at 58% · Polymarket 58% · 2 contracts · $3K volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:20:55 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 2 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This prediction reflects a 58% probability that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be removed as Cuba's leader by a specific date. The assessment reflects uncertainty around political succession in Cuba, where institutional mechanisms for leadership change are limited and controlled by the regime. The probability would likely increase if international pressure intensifies, internal party fractures become visible, or health crises emerge affecting leadership stability. Conversely, successful consolidation of party authority or external demonstrations of regime strength would lower the estimate. The key driver is whether structural instability or internal power struggles will overcome the regime's control mechanisms before the resolution date.

Key factors:
- Díaz-Canel's health status and public appearances as indicators of regime stability
- Visible rifts within Cuba's Communist Party leadership or military establishment
- Economic deterioration or humanitarian crises that destabilize state institutions
- International diplomatic or economic pressure campaigns targeting regime change
- Succession planning signals from the Castro family or other established power networks

Contracts:
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?: December 31 — 58¢ Polymarket $353 (weight 13%)
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by...?: June 30 — 6¢ Polymarket $2K (weight 87%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "58% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/miguel-dazcanel-out-as-leader-of-cuba
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Miguel%20D%C3%ADaz-Canel%20out%20as%20leader%20of%20Cuba%20by...
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev