4% — Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30
Polymarket 4% · 1 contracts · $931 volume · low confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 15:20:54 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the market's assessment that Miguel Díaz-Canel will be removed from the Cuban presidency within the next three weeks. At 12%, the market is pricing this as unlikely but not negligible. The current probability appears driven by the routine nature of Cuba's political succession processes and the lack of any announced leadership transition, which would push expectations lower. Conversely, any serious political instability, health crisis, or internal party pressure could drive the probability higher. Since there is no scheduled election or formal succession event before June 30, the main catalyst would be an unexpected political development or public announcement regarding Díaz-Canel's status. The tight timeframe (23 days remaining) and the absence of current signals suggest most market participants view an involuntary exit as a low-probability tail event.

Key factors:
- No scheduled leadership transition or election is planned before June 30, 2026
- Díaz-Canel has maintained control of both the presidency and the Communist Party leadership as of early June 2026
- Any removal would likely require action from Cuba's ruling structures, which would need to occur and be publicly announced within 23 days
- Historical precedent shows Cuban leadership transitions are typically planned well in advance rather than sudden or unexpected
- Market trading volume remains modest ($8,144 in 24-hour volume), suggesting limited conviction among participants on either side

Contracts:
- Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? — 4¢ Polymarket $931 (weight 100%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-19T01:20:20.801Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "4% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/miguel-dazcanel-out-as-president-of-cuba-june-30
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Miguel%20D%C3%ADaz-Canel%20out%20as%20President%20of%20Cuba%20by%20June%2030
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev