19% — Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:05 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the current market assessment that Alexandre Kalil will win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election scheduled for later in 2026. At 21%, the market is pricing Kalil as an underdog, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely to prevail. The current assessment reflects Kalil's political standing in the state, including his incumbency status and recent polling data relative to likely opponents. The election itself will be the decisive event, though intermediate factors like campaign developments, polling shifts, and endorsements will likely move this probability throughout the pre-election period. Market participants are trading on expectations about voter preferences in this major Brazilian state contest.

Key factors:
- Kalil's approval ratings and job performance as governor will directly influence voter support levels
- Composition and strength of the opposing candidate field, including whether a consensus opposition candidate emerges
- Recent polling data showing Kalil's relative position versus other viable candidates in head-to-head matchups
- Campaign spending and organizational capacity compared to main competitors in the lead-up to election day
- Broader political trends in Minas Gerais, including regional economic conditions and voting patterns from recent elections

Contracts:
- Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Cleitinho Azevedo — 60¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Rodrigo Pacheco — 22¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Alexandre Kalil — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Mateus Simões — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)
- Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Gabriel Azevedo — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 20%)

Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/minasgov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alexandre%20Kalil%20win%20the%202026%20Minas%20Gerais%20gubernatorial%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev