18% — Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election
Kalshi 18% · 5 contracts · $8 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:43:10 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability represents the current market assessment that Alexandre Kalil will win the Minas Gerais gubernatorial election scheduled for later in 2026. At 21%, the market is pricing Kalil as an underdog, suggesting other candidates are viewed as more likely to prevail. The current assessment reflects Kalil's political standing in the state, including his incumbency status and recent polling data relative to likely opponents. The election itself will be the decisive event, though intermediate factors like campaign developments, polling shifts, and endorsements will likely move this probability throughout the pre-election period. Market participants are trading on expectations about voter preferences in this major Brazilian state contest.

Key factors:
- Kalil's approval ratings and job performance as governor will directly influence voter support levels
- Composition and strength of the opposing candidate field, including whether a consensus opposition candidate emerges
- Recent polling data showing Kalil's relative position versus other viable candidates in head-to-head matchups
- Campaign spending and organizational capacity compared to main competitors in the lead-up to election day
- Broader political trends in Minas Gerais, including regional economic conditions and voting patterns from recent elections

Contracts:
- Will Cleitinho Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Cleitinho Azevedo — 61¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 100%)
- Will Alexandre Kalil win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Alexandre Kalil — 8¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Gabriel Azevedo win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Gabriel Azevedo — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Mateus Simões win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Mateus Simões — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Rodrigo Pacheco win the 2026 Minas Gerais gubernatorial election?: Rodrigo Pacheco — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:48.939Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "18% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/minasgov
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Alexandre%20Kalil%20win%20the%202026%20Minas%20Gerais%20gubernatorial%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev