51% — Will Martell D Bivings be the Republican nominee for MI-13
Kalshi 51% · 15 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 01:51:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that Martell D Bivings will win the Republican nomination contest for Michigan's 13th congressional district. At 28%, the market suggests Bivings is considered a meaningful contender but not the frontrunner. The nomination probability reflects ongoing primary competition dynamics in MI-13, where voter preferences, candidate endorsements, and fundraising performance shape outcomes. The metric would move higher if Bivings gains significant endorsements or demonstrates strong grassroots support through polling or turnout indicators, and would decline if a rival candidate consolidates backing or outpaces fundraising. The primary election itself will be the decisive moment, resolving whether Bivings translates current market positioning into actual nomination victory. Until then, shifts in this probability track changes in candidate viability and expected delegate strength within the Republican primary electorate.

Key factors:
- Current market pricing of 28% reflects Bivings as a secondary contender relative to other MI-13 Republican candidates not shown in top contract data
- Nomination outcomes depend on primary voting patterns and delegate allocation rules specific to Michigan's Republican process
- Fundraising totals, endorsement cascades, and polling momentum in the coming weeks can shift perceived viability and nomination probability substantially
- The primary election date for MI-13 will definitively resolve this contract, with all nomination uncertainty collapsing to either 0% or 100% at that point
- Trading volume of 20 contracts suggests moderate but not deep market liquidity for this specific nomination race

Contracts:
- Will Bridget Brink be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?: Bridget Brink — 80¢ Kalshi $420 (weight 37%)
- Will Kyle Blomquist be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?: Kyle Blomquist — 12¢ Kalshi $209 (weight 18%)
- Will Tim Greimel be the Democratic nominee for MI-10?: Tim Greimel — 9¢ Kalshi $196 (weight 17%)
- Will Robert Lulgjuraj be the Republican nominee for MI-10?: Robert Lulgjuraj — 17¢ Kalshi $148 (weight 13%)
- Will TP Nykoriak be the Republican nominee for MI-13?: TP Nykoriak — 90¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 7%)
- Will Callie Barr be the Democratic nominee for MI-01?: Callie Barr — 81¢ Kalshi $61 (weight 5%)
- Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?: William Lawrence — 10¢ Kalshi $29 (weight 3%)
- Will Jack Bergman be the Republican nominee for MI-01?: Jack Bergman — 94¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 7 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T01:20:50.588Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/miprimary
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Martell%20D%20Bivings%20be%20the%20Republican%20nominee%20for%20MI-13
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev