88% — Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election
Leader: Democrat sweep at 88% · Kalshi 88% · 3 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-08-09 23:24:59 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 3 outcomes.

Why this matters:
Markets currently price a Democratic sweep of Michigan's Supreme Court races at 88%, meaning traders estimate roughly a 9-in-10 chance that both open seats will be won by Democratic candidates. This reflects Michigan's recent electoral lean, where Democrats have performed strongly in statewide contests, combined with structural factors favoring one party across both races. The main variables affecting this probability are turnout patterns in November 2026, candidate fundraising and name recognition, any late-breaking scandals or judicial decisions that shift voter sentiment, and polling trends over the coming months. The November 2026 general election itself will be the decisive event, though meaningful shifts in this probability could occur if major polling updates or campaign developments emerge between now and then.

Key factors:
- Michigan Democrats won three statewide races in 2022 (governor, secretary of state, attorney general) with margins exceeding 10 points, establishing a blue trend in recent electoral cycles
- Turnout composition in off-year elections versus presidential cycles affects the balance—November 2026 is a midterm with no presidential race, which typically alters voter demographics
- Specific candidate quality, fundraising totals, and name recognition for both Democratic and Republican nominees will materially influence individual race outcomes
- Recent Michigan Supreme Court decisions on abortion rights and election administration have shaped voter priorities and may drive partisan polarization
- Public polling released in fall 2026 showing either party gaining ground or specific candidate momentum could shift market probabilities before the November election

Contracts:
- Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election?: Democrat sweep — 88¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election?: 1 Democrat and 1 Republican — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)
- Who will win the 2026 Michigan Supreme Court election?: Republican sweep — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 33%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-08-09T23:20:50.000Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "88% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/misc
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Who%20will%20win%20the%202026%20Michigan%20Supreme%20Court%20election
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev