9% — MLB Predictions
Kalshi 9% · 10 contracts · $226K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-27 07:55:25 UTC

Why this matters:
This 9% probability reflects the market's assessment of an individual team winning the 2026 MLB championship, based on aggregated contract prices across multiple prediction markets. The current pricing suggests substantial uncertainty about which team will capture the title, with the Los Angeles Dodgers commanding the highest individual probability at 31 cents, while other contenders range from 3 to 8 cents. Market probabilities for championship outcomes typically shift based on team performance during the regular season, injuries to key players, and playoff positioning as teams compete for postseason berths. The main catalyst affecting these probabilities will be the regular season's progression and the eventual playoff bracket composition in October, which determines which teams can advance to the World Series.

Key factors:
- Team win-loss records and playoff seeding will directly impact market probabilities as they determine postseason matchups and path to the championship
- Injuries to star players or key roster changes during the season would shift individual team probabilities by altering perceived competitive strength
- Regular season performance trends and streak outcomes have historically driven short-term probability fluctuations for contending teams
- Current 24-hour trading volume concentrated in the $12,000-$16,000 range suggests moderate but sustained market interest in championship outcome contracts
- The Los Angeles Dodgers contract trading at 31 cents versus other teams at 3-8 cents indicates market consensus that a small number of teams are considered significantly more likely to win

Contracts:
- Will Boston win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Boston — 4¢ Kalshi $51K (weight 23%)
- Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: New York Y — 13¢ Kalshi $49K (weight 22%)
- Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Los Angeles D — 34¢ Kalshi $28K (weight 12%)
- Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Milwaukee — 9¢ Kalshi $26K (weight 12%)
- Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Philadelphia — 6¢ Kalshi $22K (weight 10%)
- Will Seattle win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Seattle — 5¢ Kalshi $21K (weight 9%)
- Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Atlanta — 8¢ Kalshi $9K (weight 4%)
- Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Tampa Bay — 5¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 3%)
- ... and 2 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-27T07:20:51.492Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "9% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%20Predictions
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev