8% — MLB Predictions Kalshi 8% · 10 contracts · $61K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 04:00:16 UTC Why this matters: This 18% probability reflects aggregated market expectations for a specific MLB championship outcome in 2026, currently showing disagreement between venues with Polymarket pricing 16 percentage points higher than Kalshi. The divergence suggests uncertainty about how to weigh available information: team composition, injury status, and regular-season performance through May. Trading volume concentrates on traditional contenders like Atlanta (11¢), New York Yankees (13¢), and Los Angeles Dodgers (30¢ on Polymarket), indicating markets are pricing based on pre-season roster strength and early-season results. The probability would move upward if the relevant team demonstrates sustained winning performance, maintains key player health, and shows statistical advantages in metrics like run differential. Conversely, injuries, trades, or consistent underperformance would pressure it lower. Resolution occurs in October 2026 when the World Series concludes. Key factors: - The target team's win-loss record and playoff position as of mid-season (June-July cutoff) versus consensus preseason projections - Injury status of star players and whether key roster additions or subtractions occur via trade deadline (July 31, 2026) - Polymarket's 16-point premium over Kalshi suggests pricing differences based on available information; verification requires checking if one venue has access to more recent injury reports, trades, or performance data - Trading volume concentration on higher-seeded favorites (Atlanta, Yankees, Dodgers) versus the target team indicates relative market confidence tiers - Historical correlation between May performance and October outcomes for comparable rosters in similar competitive windows Contracts: - Will Atlanta win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Atlanta — 11¢ Kalshi $12K (weight 19%) - Will New York Y win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: New York Y — 12¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 13%) - Will Milwaukee win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Milwaukee — 5¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 12%) - Will Los Angeles D win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Los Angeles D — 28¢ Kalshi $8K (weight 12%) - Will Toronto win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Toronto — 3¢ Kalshi $7K (weight 11%) - Will Tampa Bay win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Tampa Bay — 3¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 8%) - Will Seattle win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Seattle — 8¢ Kalshi $5K (weight 8%) - Will Philadelphia win the 2026 Pro Baseball Championship?: Philadelphia — 4¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 6%) - ... and 2 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T03:20:11.678Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "8% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%20Predictions Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev