37% — MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner Leader: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez at 37% · Polymarket 37% · 7 contracts · $317 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-17 16:47:29 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes. Why this matters: The current 35% probability indicates that one specific player is considered the favorite to win the 2026 AL Hank Aaron Award (given to the league's top hitter), though the lack of a clear consensus shows genuine uncertainty in the market. The level reflects early-season performance data and preseason expectations; it could shift upward if the current leader maintains a significant batting average or slugging percentage advantage through the season, or downward if other contenders emerge with stronger offensive numbers. The main catalyst driving resolution will be the accumulation of actual 2026 batting statistics through the regular season, with final voting occurring after the season concludes in late September or early October. Currently, no single player has priced-in dominance comparable to the 36% assigned to Shohei Ohtani in the NL race, suggesting the AL field remains fragmented. Key factors: - Current leader's cumulative offensive production (batting average, slugging percentage, RBIs) versus nearest competitors through mid-season and into September - Injury status and availability of top contenders, which would directly affect their statistical accumulation and voting eligibility - Historical voting patterns for the Hank Aaron Award, including whether voters favor traditional counting stats (RBIs, hits) or rate-based metrics (average, OPS) - Relative strength of individual competitors' teams and playoff success, which can influence voter perception in close races - Market concentration: the leader holds 35% while runner-up holds 26%, indicating fragmentation across remaining candidates rather than broad consensus Contracts: - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Yordan Alvarez — 37¢ Polymarket $6 (weight 2%) - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Nick Kurtz — 15¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Bobby Witt Jr. — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: José Ramírez — 8¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Julio Rodríguez — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Aaron Judge — 3¢ Polymarket $311 (weight 98%) - MLB: 2026 AL Hank Aaron Winner: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-17T16:20:18.741Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "37% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb-al-hank-aaron-winner Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%3A%202026%20AL%20Hank%20Aaron%20Winner Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev