21% — MLB: ERA Leader Leader: ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez at 21% · Polymarket 21% · 6 contracts · $216 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-05-28 20:43:59 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 6 outcomes. Why this matters: This 19% probability reflects market expectations that Paul Skenes will finish the 2026 MLB season with the lowest earned run average among qualified pitchers. The market views this outcome as possible but unlikely, with Ohtani and Sánchez rated nearly as probable. ERA leadership will be determined by cumulative performance over the full season through September 2026. The primary drivers are each pitcher's health, consistency, team defensive support, and workload management. October's final regular-season results will resolve the contract, with qualifying criteria (typically 67 innings pitched minimum) determining eligibility. Early-season performance and injury updates will shift probabilities throughout the year, though the bulk of statistical divergence typically occurs in the final month. Key factors: - Paul Skenes currently has 19¢ pricing despite lowest trading volume ($80 24h), suggesting thin liquidity rather than confident backing relative to top-volume contracts (Ohtani at $485) - Ohtani and Sánchez combined represent 32¢ of probability, indicating market skepticism that any single pitcher dominates ERA races this season - Qualifying pitchers must typically reach 67+ innings pitched; injury risk for any pitcher in this group could eliminate them before season's end - ERA leadership typically determined in final month of season; early rankings are weak predictors, making this contract highly sensitive to July-September pitcher health and performance - Current pricing suggests no clear consensus favorite, with four pitchers within 4-19¢ range, indicating high uncertainty about seasonal outcomes Contracts: - MLB: ERA Leader: Cristopher Sánchez — 21¢ Polymarket $136 (weight 63%) - MLB: ERA Leader: Paul Skenes — 12¢ Polymarket $80 (weight 37%) - MLB: ERA Leader: Hunter Brown — 4¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: ERA Leader: Tarik Skubal — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: ERA Leader: Seth Lugo — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: ERA Leader: Dylan Cease — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:12.337Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "21% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb-era-leader Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%3A%20ERA%20Leader Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev