76% — MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion
Leader: 2026 NL Central Champion : Milwaukee Brewers at 76% · Polymarket 76% · 5 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 14:46:06 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 5 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This 45% probability reflects the leading market estimate for one of five NL Central teams to win the 2026 divisional title. The division remains competitive, with uncertainty driven by each team's injury status, trade deadline moves, and sustained performance through the season's second half. Key factors include which teams solidify contention by mid-June and how roster depth holds up over a full season. The division outcome will resolve in early October when the playoffs begin, but meaningful clarity should emerge by late August as teams commit to buying or selling at the deadline. Polymarket's broader World Series contracts show the Dodgers favored at 28 cents, suggesting any NL Central champion's ultimate championship odds vary significantly by team.

Key factors:
- The leading 45% position implies substantial separation from runner-up at 17%, indicating one team has established clear divisional advantage as of early May 2026
- Liquidity and volume across five World Series contracts ($14k+ in 24-hour volume) suggests active market participants pricing team-specific factors beyond division outcomes
- Late-August trade deadline typically triggers major shifts in contention probability as teams signal commitment or pivot to rebuilding, creating catalyst for re-pricing
- Injuries to starting pitchers or core lineup players on any frontrunner would directly pressure the leading contract downward and redistribute probability to alternatives
- A team's cumulative record relative to pace (55+ wins by late July) historically predicts division probability, offering near-term data points for market adjustment

Contracts:
- MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Milwaukee Brewers — 76¢ Polymarket $1K (weight 92%)
- MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Chicago Cubs — 12¢ Polymarket $44 (weight 3%)
- MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Pittsburgh Pirates — 7¢ Polymarket $79 (weight 5%)
- MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : St. Louis Cardinals — 6¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)
- MLB: 2026 NL Central Champion : Cincinnati Reds — 3¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T14:20:21.862Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "76% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb-nl-central-champion
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%3A%202026%20NL%20Central%20Champion
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev