90% — MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals Leader: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Washington Nationals at 90% · Polymarket 90% · 20 contracts · $383 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-08 05:22:45 UTC Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes. Why this matters: This probability represents the likelihood that a specific team will finish with a particular number of wins in the 2026 MLB regular season. The current 81% probability for the leading contract reflects asymmetric confidence among traders rather than even odds. Win total predictions depend heavily on roster stability, injury developments throughout the season, and trading activity at the deadline. The start of the regular season on March 28, 2026 (already underway) and ongoing performance data will continuously resolve uncertainty as teams accumulate actual wins. As the season progresses, opening-day expectations will be replaced by live performance, making early-season results—particularly the first 50 games—a critical catalyst that either validates or contradicts preseason win projections. Key factors: - Current contract prices (Athletics 33¢, Pirates 38¢) suggest market skepticism about lower-end win totals, while mid-range teams (Giants 51¢, Mariners/Astros 61¢) show tighter consensus - Trading volume is concentrated on Athletics (24h volume of $31), indicating active disagreement on that specific outcome versus minimal recent trading on other contracts - Win total contracts are binary outcomes dependent on final regular-season records (162 games), making cumulative performance through June a strong early indicator of which contracts remain viable - Roster composition and injury rates directly affect win projections; teams with significant mid-season injuries or roster changes will deviate from preseason expectations - The 20-contract structure with highest contract at 81% and runner-up at 64% indicates no single outcome is heavily favored, reflecting genuine distribution of possible final records across multiple teams Contracts: - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Washington Nationals — 90¢ Polymarket $4 (weight 1%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Cleveland Guardians — 90¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Chicago White Sox — 90¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: New York Yankees — 87¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Tampa Bay Rays — 86¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Atlanta Braves — 84¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Houston Astros — 49¢ Polymarket $40 (weight 10%) - MLB: 2026 Regular Season Win Totals: Texas Rangers — 48¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 0%) - ... and 12 more --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-08T05:20:07.144Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "90% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb-regular-season-win-totals Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%3A%202026%20Regular%20Season%20Win%20Totals Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev