51% — MLB The Show 27
Leader: Cover Athlete: Jazz Chisholm at 51% · Polymarket 51% · 20 contracts · $0 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-17 14:31:39 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 20 outcomes.

Why this matters:
This represents the probability that a specific player will be selected as the cover athlete for MLB The Show 27, based on aggregated market prices from 20 prediction contracts. The current 57% leader reflects market expectations about which player Sony San Diego Studio will choose, competing against Aaron Judge, Elly De La Cruz, Bryan Woo, and Matt Olson. Resolution depends on Sony's official announcement of the cover athlete, typically made during the game's marketing cycle before launch. The contracts show relatively tight clustering between top candidates (50-56 cents), indicating genuine uncertainty rather than consensus. Volume is currently zero, suggesting the market is in a quiet period before any official reveals or news breaks.

Key factors:
- Official cover athlete announcement from Sony San Diego Studio has not yet been made and represents the sole resolution event
- Market prices cluster tightly (50-56 cents across five candidates), indicating no dominant favorite and substantial residual uncertainty
- Recent player performance, injury status, and marketability during the 2026 season could influence Sony's selection criteria
- Shohei Ohtani and Matt Olson both trade at 56 cents, tied as co-leaders, suggesting market sees them as competitive alternatives
- Zero 24-hour volume indicates minimal recent trading activity, so current prices may not reflect very recent developments in player news or status

Contracts:
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Jazz Chisholm — 51¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Aaron Judge — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Jordan Walker — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Elly De La Cruz — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Bryan Woo — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Mason Miller — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Roman Anthony — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- MLB The Show 27: Cover Athlete: Matt Olson — 50¢ Polymarket $0 (weight 5%)
- ... and 12 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-17T14:20:17.867Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "51% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlb-show-27
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=MLB%20The%20Show%2027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev