13% — Will Mike Trout win AL CPOTY Kalshi 13% · 8 contracts · $603 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-07-13 06:17:13 UTC Why this matters: This probability represents the market's assessment of Mike Trout winning the American League Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026 season. At 15%, the market implies significant skepticism about Trout's chances, likely reflecting uncertainty about his injury status, recovery trajectory, and whether he'll accumulate sufficient playing time to qualify for the award consideration. The main factors driving this low probability are the historical rarity of star players winning CPOTY and questions about whether Trout would be deemed the league's most impressive comeback story relative to other candidates. The resolution depends entirely on full-season performance metrics and voting outcomes by sports writers and official bodies following the 2026 MLB regular season in September-October 2026. Market participants would reassess based on spring training reports, early season performance data, and injury updates throughout the season. Key factors: - Mike Trout's actual playing time and availability during the 2026 regular season will directly affect his eligibility and award consideration - The strength and narrative appeal of competing AL players' comeback stories will determine whether Trout's narrative ranks first among all candidates - Official medical reports and team statements on Trout's health status and expected return timing will shift market expectations as the season progresses - Voting criteria and historical voting patterns for the Comeback Player of the Year award may favor less prominent players or different recovery narratives - Early-season statistical performance (if available) will provide concrete data on Trout's functional recovery rather than speculation Contracts: - Will Yordan Alvarez win AL CPOTY?: Yordan Alvarez — 61¢ Kalshi $520 (weight 86%) - Will Adley Rutschman win AL CPOTY?: Adley Rutschman — 5¢ Kalshi $71 (weight 12%) - Will Gerrit Cole win AL CPOTY?: Gerrit Cole — 11¢ Kalshi $13 (weight 2%) - Will Royce Lewis win AL CPOTY?: Royce Lewis — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Anthony Santander win AL CPOTY?: Anthony Santander — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Kristian Campbell win AL CPOTY?: Kristian Campbell — 7¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Zack Gelof win AL CPOTY?: Zack Gelof — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Tie/Co-Winners win AL CPOTY?: Tie/Co-Winners — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-07-13T05:20:51.779Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalcpoty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mike%20Trout%20win%20AL%20CPOTY Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev