11% — Will Tarik Skubal win AL Cy Young
Kalshi 11% · 7 contracts · $13K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:21 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 9% chance that Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal wins the American League Cy Young Award, given to the league's best pitcher each season. The current low probability likely reflects Skubal's performance trajectory through early May and competition from other pitchers. The award is determined by voting after the regular season concludes in late September, with the winner announced in November. Performance metrics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched through the season's final week will directly influence voting outcomes. Early-season form often correlates with full-season success, though injuries, mid-season slumps, or breakout performances from competitors could significantly shift probabilities.

Key factors:
- Skubal's ERA and strikeout rate through May 2026 compared to other AL contenders
- Whether Skubal avoids significant injuries between May and September that could derail his candidacy
- Changes in his team's record and playoff positioning, which influence voter perception
- Emergence or decline of rival pitchers like Cam Schlittler (17¢) or other untracked candidates
- Voting recency bias typically favors strong September performances over early-season results

Contracts:
- Will Jose Soriano win AL Cy Young?: Jose Soriano — 4¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 24%)
- Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young?: Cam Schlittler — 25¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 23%)
- Will Max Fried win AL Cy Young?: Max Fried — 14¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 18%)
- Will Tarik Skubal win AL Cy Young?: Tarik Skubal — 6¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 16%)
- Will Bryan Woo win AL Cy Young?: Bryan Woo — 4¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 11%)
- Will Dylan Cease win AL Cy Young?: Dylan Cease — 16¢ Kalshi $772 (weight 6%)
- Will Jacob Degrom win AL Cy Young?: Jacob Degrom — 10¢ Kalshi $251 (weight 2%)

Cite as: "11% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalcy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tarik%20Skubal%20win%20AL%20Cy%20Young
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev