26% — Will Tarik Skubal win AL Cy Young
Kalshi 26% · 3 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 09:42:36 UTC

Why this matters:
This market reflects a 9% chance that Detroit Tigers pitcher Tarik Skubal wins the American League Cy Young Award, given to the league's best pitcher each season. The current low probability likely reflects Skubal's performance trajectory through early May and competition from other pitchers. The award is determined by voting after the regular season concludes in late September, with the winner announced in November. Performance metrics like ERA, wins, strikeouts, and innings pitched through the season's final week will directly influence voting outcomes. Early-season form often correlates with full-season success, though injuries, mid-season slumps, or breakout performances from competitors could significantly shift probabilities.

Key factors:
- Skubal's ERA and strikeout rate through May 2026 compared to other AL contenders
- Whether Skubal avoids significant injuries between May and September that could derail his candidacy
- Changes in his team's record and playoff positioning, which influence voter perception
- Emergence or decline of rival pitchers like Cam Schlittler (17¢) or other untracked candidates
- Voting recency bias typically favors strong September performances over early-season results

Contracts:
- Will Cam Schlittler win AL Cy Young?: Cam Schlittler — 56¢ Kalshi $4K (weight 99%)
- Will Dylan Cease win AL Cy Young?: Dylan Cease — 20¢ Kalshi $31 (weight 1%)
- Will Drew Rasmussen win AL Cy Young?: Drew Rasmussen — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-06-26T09:20:50.233Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "26% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalcy
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Tarik%20Skubal%20win%20AL%20Cy%20Young
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev