44% — Will Ben Rice be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team
Kalshi 44% · 19 contracts · $2K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-26 04:13:49 UTC

Why this matters:
This represents an assessment that Ben Rice has a roughly two-in-three chance of being selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team. The probability reflects Rice's performance through the first half of the season and how his statistics compare to other AL designated hitters and backup catchers. All-Star selection depends on fan voting, player voting, and manager selections, weighted across these categories. The current level suggests Rice is positioned as a solid candidate but faces competition from established names. The main driver would be Rice's performance metrics—batting average, home runs, and overall offensive production—relative to other eligible AL players. The All-Star voting results, typically revealed in early July, will definitively resolve this market, making mid-season statistical accumulation the key factor before that announcement.

Key factors:
- Ben Rice's batting average, home run total, and RBI count through early-to-mid June compared to other AL catchers and DH candidates
- Fan voting patterns, which typically favor established stars and high-profile teams over newer or less familiar players
- Manager and player voting preferences, which can shift outcomes for borderline candidates depending on positional needs
- Competition level from other AL catchers and DH-eligible players—stronger competition from others would lower Rice's probability
- The official All-Star voting deadline and selection announcement, scheduled for early July, which will resolve the market with certainty

Contracts:
- Will Max Scherzer be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Max Scherzer — 13¢ Kalshi $424 (weight 23%)
- Will Mookie Betts be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Mookie Betts — 13¢ Kalshi $375 (weight 20%)
- Will Riley Greene be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Riley Greene — 34¢ Kalshi $277 (weight 15%)
- Will José Ramírez be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: José Ramírez — 50¢ Kalshi $229 (weight 12%)
- Will Max Muncy be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Max Muncy — 87¢ Kalshi $161 (weight 9%)
- Will Ernie Clement be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Ernie Clement — 97¢ Kalshi $101 (weight 5%)
- Will Hunter Goodman be selected to the 2026 NL All-Star Team?: Hunter Goodman — 11¢ Kalshi $81 (weight 4%)
- Will Ryan O'Hearn be selected to the 2026 AL All-Star Team?: Ryan O'Hearn — 7¢ Kalshi $47 (weight 3%)
- ... and 11 more

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-26T03:20:49.437Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "44% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlballstar
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Ben%20Rice%20be%20selected%20to%20the%202026%20AL%20All-Star%20Team
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev