12% — Will Mark Kotsay win AL MOTY
Kalshi 12% · 8 contracts · $271 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-07-13 07:15:42 UTC

Why this matters:
This 6% probability represents the market's assessment that Mark Kotsay will be named the American League Manager of the Year for the 2026 season. At this level, Kotsay is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other contenders. The probability reflects either that his team is not currently positioned for strong performance, or that other managers have stronger narratives or résumés for the award. The key drivers would be his team's win-loss record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams, the individual performances of other managers' rosters, and any notable midseason improvements or storylines. The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September 2026, when voters select the winner based on managerial performance and team success. Between now and then, team performance, injury situations, and coaching decisions will shape perceptions of his candidacy relative to competitors like Walt Weiss in the NL.

Key factors:
- Kotsay's team's current standings and remaining schedule relative to other AL contenders seeking playoff positions
- Comparative strength of narratives for other AL manager candidates based on team performance and circumstances
- Whether Kotsay's team experiences significant mid-season performance changes (winning streaks, playoff positioning shifts) that alter voter perceptions
- Injury or personnel changes that could affect his team's trajectory and his strategic impact for the remainder of the season
- Regular season conclusion in late September 2026, when final records determine voting pool and narratives crystallize

Contracts:
- Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY?: Kevin Cash — 22¢ Kalshi $200 (weight 74%)
- Will Derek Shelton win AL MOTY?: Derek Shelton — 9¢ Kalshi $52 (weight 19%)
- Will Will Venable win AL MOTY?: Will Venable — 41¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 7%)
- Will Craig Albernaz win AL MOTY?: Craig Albernaz — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Joe Espada win AL MOTY?: Joe Espada — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY?: Aaron Boone — 9¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Dan Wilson win AL MOTY?: Dan Wilson — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY?: Skip Schumaker — 6¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-07-13T06:20:49.280Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, July 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalmoty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mark%20Kotsay%20win%20AL%20MOTY
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev