13% — Will Mark Kotsay win AL MOTY Kalshi 13% · 7 contracts · $766 volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-08-27 13:33:44 UTC Why this matters: Mark Kotsay's 24% probability reflects betting markets' assessment of his chances to win the 2026 American League Manager of the Year award. The market prices him as a moderate contender, behind Will Venable (44%) and Chad Tracy (38%), but ahead of Kevin Cash (14%). Kotsay's position is likely driven by his team's regular-season performance through August, including wins, losses, and playoff positioning. The main factors supporting a higher probability would be strong team performance and statistical advancement in win-loss records over the remaining season weeks. The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September 2026, with voting and announcement typically occurring in early October. Until then, market sentiment will adjust based on real-time team performance, injury developments, and playoff race dynamics that influence perceived managerial impact. Key factors: - Kotsay's team's win-loss record and standings position relative to other AL teams managed by competing candidates - Performance trajectory from August through season end in late September, including whether his team gains or loses games in the pennant race - Individual manager narratives and storylines (turnarounds, first-year success, overcoming obstacles) that voters weigh in award deliberations - Relative performance gaps between Kotsay and the three managers trading at higher probabilities (Venable, Tracy, Cash) - Voting patterns from previous years showing what statistical metrics (wins, improvement, playoff success) most influence AL MOTY selections Contracts: - Will Chad Tracy win AL MOTY?: Chad Tracy — 4¢ Kalshi $513 (weight 67%) - Will Derek Shelton win AL MOTY?: Derek Shelton — 3¢ Kalshi $156 (weight 20%) - Will Will Venable win AL MOTY?: Will Venable — 62¢ Kalshi $62 (weight 8%) - Will A.J. Hinch win AL MOTY?: A.J. Hinch — 3¢ Kalshi $34 (weight 4%) - Will Kevin Cash win AL MOTY?: Kevin Cash — 7¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%) - Will Aaron Boone win AL MOTY?: Aaron Boone — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) - Will Skip Schumaker win AL MOTY?: Skip Schumaker — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-08-27T13:20:49.961Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, August 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalmoty Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Mark%20Kotsay%20win%20AL%20MOTY Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev