12% — Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP
Kalshi 12% · 7 contracts · $5K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:21:44 UTC

Why this matters:
This probability reflects the current market assessment that Nick Kurtz has a 12% chance of winning the American League MVP award in the 2026 baseball season. The relatively modest probability suggests that while Kurtz is considered a viable candidate, the market views other players as more likely frontrunners. Key drivers of this level include Kurtz's offensive performance through the early season, his team's overall competitiveness, and how his statistics compare to other AL contenders. As the season progresses through May and into the summer months, MVP probability will shift based on accumulated offensive production (batting average, home runs, RBIs, WAR), injury status of Kurtz and competing candidates, and team performance in the standings. The MVP award typically reflects both individual excellence and team success, so the trajectory of his team's win-loss record will be a significant factor. The formal MVP voting occurs in November after the season concludes, though market prices will adjust continuously based on emerging performance data.

Key factors:
- Kurtz's year-to-date offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, OPS) compared to other AL MVP contenders
- His team's current record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams
- Injury status and availability of Kurtz and other top MVP candidates throughout the season
- Changes to Kurtz's role or playing time that would affect his season accumulation totals
- Historical voting patterns showing whether voters prioritize individual statistics or team success more heavily

Contracts:
- Will Aaron Judge win AL MVP?: Aaron Judge — 43¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 51%)
- Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?: Yordan Álvarez — 16¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 26%)
- Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?: Bobby Witt Jr. — 9¢ Kalshi $662 (weight 13%)
- Will Ben Rice win AL MVP?: Ben Rice — 6¢ Kalshi $504 (weight 10%)
- Will Mike Trout win AL MVP?: Mike Trout — 3¢ Kalshi $1 (weight 0%)
- Will Vladimir Guerrero Jr. win AL MVP?: Vladimir Guerrero Jr. — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP?: Nick Kurtz — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

Cite as: "12% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalmvp
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nick%20Kurtz%20win%20AL%20MVP
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev