19% — Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP Kalshi 19% · 5 contracts · $4K volume · medium confidence Updated 2026-06-30 00:19:00 UTC Why this matters: This probability reflects the current market assessment that Nick Kurtz has a 12% chance of winning the American League MVP award in the 2026 baseball season. The relatively modest probability suggests that while Kurtz is considered a viable candidate, the market views other players as more likely frontrunners. Key drivers of this level include Kurtz's offensive performance through the early season, his team's overall competitiveness, and how his statistics compare to other AL contenders. As the season progresses through May and into the summer months, MVP probability will shift based on accumulated offensive production (batting average, home runs, RBIs, WAR), injury status of Kurtz and competing candidates, and team performance in the standings. The MVP award typically reflects both individual excellence and team success, so the trajectory of his team's win-loss record will be a significant factor. The formal MVP voting occurs in November after the season concludes, though market prices will adjust continuously based on emerging performance data. Key factors: - Kurtz's year-to-date offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs, OPS) compared to other AL MVP contenders - His team's current record and playoff positioning relative to other AL teams - Injury status and availability of Kurtz and other top MVP candidates throughout the season - Changes to Kurtz's role or playing time that would affect his season accumulation totals - Historical voting patterns showing whether voters prioritize individual statistics or team success more heavily Contracts: - Will Junior Caminero win AL MVP?: Junior Caminero — 8¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 56%) - Will Ben Rice win AL MVP?: Ben Rice — 4¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 29%) - Will Bobby Witt Jr. win AL MVP?: Bobby Witt Jr. — 13¢ Kalshi $211 (weight 6%) - Will Yordan Álvarez win AL MVP?: Yordan Álvarez — 51¢ Kalshi $176 (weight 5%) - Will Nick Kurtz win AL MVP?: Nick Kurtz — 18¢ Kalshi $163 (weight 4%) --- ## Methodology SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours. ## SF Signal - SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration. - No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only. --- *Last verified: 2026-06-29T23:20:50.791Z* By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/ Cite as: "19% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)" Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalmvp Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Nick%20Kurtz%20win%20AL%20MVP Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev