5% — Will Josh Hader win AL Reliever of the Year
Kalshi 5% · 18 contracts · $19 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-09 07:22:00 UTC

Why this matters:
This market estimates a 6% chance that Josh Hader wins the American League Reliever of the Year award for the 2026 MLB season. Hader's probability reflects his status as an elite reliever but also acknowledges strong competition in a deep AL bullpen class. The award typically goes to pitchers with both dominant statistics (ERA, strikeout rate, saves) and significant innings pitched during the regular season. Hader's chances would increase with exceptional performance metrics through September or if key competitors experience injury or decline. The outcome will be determined by year-end MLB award voting, with results typically announced in November following the regular season's conclusion.

Key factors:
- Hader's earned run average, strikeout rate, and saves total through the 2026 regular season relative to other AL relievers
- Injury status and availability of competing elite AL relievers (Clase, King, Lorenzen, Rodon, and others) throughout the season
- Total innings pitched and game-save opportunities, since award voters typically favor relievers with substantial workload
- Voting pattern trends for the Reliever of the Year award, which historically favors pitchers with sub-2.50 ERA and 40+ saves
- Hader's team's postseason performance, as voters sometimes consider playoff success when evaluating relief pitchers

Contracts:
- Will Aroldis Chapman win AL Reliever of the Year?: Aroldis Chapman — 9¢ Kalshi $19 (weight 100%)
- Will Cade Smith win AL Reliever of the Year?: Cade Smith — 12¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Carlos Estevez win AL Reliever of the Year?: Carlos Estevez — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Andres Muñoz win AL Reliever of the Year?: Andres Muñoz — 10¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Jeff Hoffman win AL Reliever of the Year?: Jeff Hoffman — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Josh Hader win AL Reliever of the Year?: Josh Hader — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will David Bednar win AL Reliever of the Year?: David Bednar — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Kyle Finnegan win AL Reliever of the Year?: Kyle Finnegan — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- ... and 10 more

Cite as: "5% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalreloty
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Josh%20Hader%20win%20AL%20Reliever%20of%20the%20Year
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev