13% — Will Samuel Basallo win AL ROTY
Kalshi 13% · 7 contracts · $1K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-06-28 23:19:31 UTC

Why this matters:
Samuel Basallo's 14% probability reflects market expectations that he will not win the American League Rookie of the Year award in 2026. The market is pricing in competition from other highly-regarded prospects, particularly Kevin McGonigle (40%) and Munetaka Murakami (38%), suggesting Basallo faces significant headwinds despite being in contention. His probability would rise if he demonstrates sustained performance metrics—batting average, on-base percentage, and power numbers—that outpace competing rookies through the season. Conversely, injuries, performance decline, or breakthrough performances by other candidates could lower his odds. The outcome will be determined by year-end statistical comparisons and voting by the Baseball Writers' Association, making mid-season performance data points the key catalyst for probability shifts.

Key factors:
- McGonigle and Murakami are currently priced nearly 3x higher, indicating market consensus views them as more likely winners
- Basallo's win probability implies approximately 1-in-7 odds, positioning him outside the top two contenders but not eliminated
- Year-to-date performance statistics (batting average, slugging percentage, WAR, plate appearances) will be primary determinants of voting consideration
- Playing time and injury status throughout the season are critical—ROTY voters typically require substantial major league service time
- BBWAA voting typically weights overall offensive production and defensive performance, not just raw talent or prospect rankings

Contracts:
- Will Kevin McGonigle win AL ROTY?: Kevin McGonigle — 54¢ Kalshi $858 (weight 84%)
- Will Munetaka Murakami win AL ROTY?: Munetaka Murakami — 18¢ Kalshi $164 (weight 16%)
- Will Kazuma Okamoto win AL ROTY?: Kazuma Okamoto — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Samuel Basallo win AL ROTY?: Samuel Basallo — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Travis Bazzana win AL ROTY?: Travis Bazzana — 5¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Lazaro Montes win AL ROTY?: Lazaro Montes — 4¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Hagen Smith win AL ROTY?: Hagen Smith — 3¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-06-28T22:20:48.952Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "13% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, June 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbalroty
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Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev