84% — Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028
Leader: Before Aug 1, 2028 at 84% · Kalshi 84% · 7 contracts · $68 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:36:16 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 84¢ Kalshi $38 (weight 56%)
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028 — 84¢ Kalshi $7 (weight 10%)
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027 — 68¢ Kalshi $10 (weight 15%)
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028 — 68¢ Kalshi $2 (weight 3%)
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027 — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027 — 34¢ Kalshi $8 (weight 12%)
- Will Franklin Arias play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 17¢ Kalshi $3 (weight 4%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:07.041Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "84% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbdebut-farias
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Franklin%20Arias%20play%20in%20a%20game%20for%20any%20team%20in%20the%20MLB%20before%20May%201%2C%202028
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev