97% — Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027
Leader: Before May 1, 2027 at 97% · Kalshi 97% · 7 contracts · $6K volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-09-21 10:52:08 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Why this matters:
The 86% probability indicates market participants believe De Paula will play in an MLB game by November 2028, though the much lower prices on earlier dates (6% by May 2027, 7% by August 2027) suggest uncertainty about near-term timing. The probability reflects De Paula's current status in professional baseball development—likely a minor league prospect—and the typical pathway to MLB debut. Key drivers include his progression through the minor league system, organizational depth at his position, and availability of roster spots. The primary uncertainty resolver will be roster decisions during spring training and early-season MLB operations, particularly around roster expansion or injury replacements that might accelerate or delay debut opportunities.

Key factors:
- The steep discount on near-term contracts (6% for May 2027) versus the long-term outlook (86% by Nov 2028) suggests De Paula has not yet been called to MLB but has reasonable long-term prospect status
- Minor league development timelines typically span 2-5 years; De Paula would need to progress through multiple levels and outcompete organizational competition for a roster spot
- Spring training rosters and early-season injury replacements between June 2026 and May 2027 represent the most likely near-term MLB debut catalysts
- MLB roster composition and organizational needs at De Paula's position will directly influence whether a debut occurs before late 2028 versus later years
- The minimal trading volume on most contracts suggests limited market liquidity and potential uncertainty about De Paula's current professional status or visibility

Contracts:
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027 — 97¢ Kalshi $3K (weight 56%)
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 97¢ Kalshi $2K (weight 26%)
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2027?: Before Aug 1, 2027 — 96¢ Kalshi $1K (weight 18%)
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2028?: Before Aug 1, 2028 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2028?: Before May 1, 2028 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Josue De Paula play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028 — 95¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)

---

## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

---

*Last verified: 2026-09-13T19:20:51.562Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "97% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, September 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbdebut-jdepaula
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Josue%20De%20Paula%20play%20in%20a%20game%20for%20any%20team%20in%20the%20MLB%20before%20May%201%2C%202027
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev