79% — Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026
Leader: Before Nov 1, 2027 at 79% · Kalshi 79% · 7 contracts · $18 volume · medium confidence
Updated 2026-05-28 20:44:00 UTC

Tracks the leading outcome in a winner-take-all prediction market set with 7 outcomes.

Contracts:
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027 — 79¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 50%)
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026 — 69¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027 — 66¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026 — 47¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026 — 27¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026 — 20¢ Kalshi $0 (weight 0%)
- Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Jul 13, 2026?: Before Jul 13, 2026 — 14¢ Kalshi $9 (weight 50%)

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## Methodology

SimpleFunctions aggregates live YES-side prices from Kalshi and Polymarket contracts bound to this question. For binary topics the headline is the liquidity-weighted mid-price (weight = log(1 + 24h volume) × freshness, where freshness is 1.0 if updated <24h, 0.7 if <7d, 0.4 otherwise). For multi-outcome (winner-take-all) topics the headline is the current leader's price — disjoint outcomes are never arithmetically averaged. Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours.

## SF Signal

- SF Index, regime, and 30d Brier calibration are computed separately and surfaced at https://simplefunctions.dev/admin/calibration.
- No SimpleFunctions index / regime / calibration signal is bound to this topic yet — the headline above is market-derived only.

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*Last verified: 2026-05-28T20:20:10.696Z*

By SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev/

Cite as: "79% per prediction markets (SimpleFunctions, May 2026)"
Canonical: https://simplefunctions.dev/answer/mlbdebut-ldevries
Full data: https://simplefunctions.dev/api/public/query?q=Will%20Leo%20De%20Vries%20play%20in%20a%20game%20for%20any%20team%20in%20the%20MLB%20before%20Sep%201%2C%202026
Provider: SimpleFunctions — https://simplefunctions.dev